FOREX TRADING SIGNALS AND NEWS

The Gross National Product (GNP)
The Gross National Product measures the economic performance of the
whole economy.
This indicator consists, at macro scale, of the sum of consumption
spending, investment spending, government spending, and net trade. The
gross national product refers to the sum of all goods and services produced
by United States residents, either in the United States or abroad.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the sum of all goods and
services produced in the United States, either by domestic or foreign
companies. The differences between the two are nominal in the case of the
economy of the United States. GDP figures are more popular outside theUnited States. In order to make it easier to compare the performances of
different economies, the United States also releases GDP figures.

Consumption Spending
Consumption is made possible by personal income and discretionary
income. The decision by consumers to spend or to save is psychological in
nature. Consumer confidence is also measured as an important indicator of
the propensity of consumers who have discretionary income to switch from
saving to buying.

Investment Spending
Investment—or gross private domestic spending - consists of fixed
investment and inventories.

Economic indicators occur in a steady stream, at certain times, and a
little more often than changes in interest rates, governments, or natural
activity such as earthquakes etc. Economic data is generally (except of the
Gross Domestic Product and the Employment Cost Index, which are released
quarterly) released on a monthly basis.
All economic indicators are released in pairs. The first number reflects
the latest period. The second number is the revised figure for the month prior
to the latest period. For instance, in July, economic data is released for the
month of June, the latest period. In addition, the release includes the revision
of the same economic indicator figure for the month of May. The reason for
the revision is that the department in charge of the economic statistics
compilation is in a better position to gather more information in a month's
time. This feature is important for traders. If the figure for an economic
indicator is better than expected by 0.4 percent for the past month, but the
previous month's number is revised lower by 0.4 percent, then traders are
likely to ignore the overall release of that specific economic data.
Economic indicators are released at different times. In the United
States, economic data is generally released at 8:30 and 10 am ET. It is
important to remember that the most significant data for foreign exchange is
released at 8:30 am ET. In order to allow time for last-minute adjustments,
the United States currency futures markets open at 8:20 am ET.
Information on upcoming economic indicators is published in all leading
newspapers, such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and the
New York Times; and business magazines, such as Business Week. More
often than not, traders use the monitor sources—Bridge Information Systems,
Reuters, or Bloomberg—to gather information both from news publications
and from the sources' own up-to-date information.

MODERN MONETARY THEORIES ON SHORT-TERM EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY
The modern monetary theories on short-term exchange rate volatility
take into consideration the short-term capital markets' role and the long-term
impact of the commodity markets on foreign exchange. These theories hold
that the divergence between the exchange rate and the purchasing power
parity is due to the supply and demand for financial assets and the
international capability.
One of the modern monetary theories states that exchange rate
volatility is triggered by a one-time domestic money supply increase, because
this is assumed to raise expectations of higher future monetary growth.
The purchasing power parity theory is extended to include the capital
markets. If, in both countries whose currencies are exchanged, the demand for money is determined by the level of domestic income and domestic
interest rates, then a higher income increases demand for transactions
balances while a higher interest rate increases the opportunity cost of holding
money, reducing the demand for money.
Under a second approach, the exchange rate adjusts instantaneously to
maintain continuous interest rate parity, but only in the long run to maintain
PPP.
Volatility occurs because the commodity markets adjust more slowly
than the financial markets. This version is known as the dynamic monetary
approach.


THE PORTFOLIO-BALANCE APPROACH
The portfolio-balance approach holds that currency demand is triggered
by the demand for financial assets, rather than the demand for the currency
per se.
Synthesis of Traditional and Modern Monetary Views
In order to better suit the previous theories to the realities of the
market, some of the more stringent conditions were adjusted into a synthesis
of the traditional and modern monetary theories.
A short-term capital outflow induced by a monetary shock creates a
payments imbalance that requires an exchange rate change to maintain
balance of payments equilibrium. Speculative forces, commodity markets
disturbances, and the existence of short-term capital mobility trigger the
exchange rate volatility. The degree of change in the exchange rate is a
function of consumers' elasticity of demand.
Because the financial markets adjust faster than the commodities
markets, the exchange rate tends to be affected in the short term by capital
market changes, and in the long term by commodities changes.

The Gross National Product (GNP)
The Gross National Product measures the economic performance of the
whole economy.
This indicator consists, at macro scale, of the sum of consumption
spending, investment spending, government spending, and net trade. The
gross national product refers to the sum of all goods and services produced
by United States residents, either in the United States or abroad.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the sum of all goods and
services produced in the United States, either by domestic or foreign
companies. The differences between the two are nominal in the case of the
economy of the United States. GDP figures are more popular outside theUnited States. In order to make it easier to compare the performances of
different economies, the United States also releases GDP figures.

Consumption Spending
Consumption is made possible by personal income and discretionary
income. The decision by consumers to spend or to save is psychological in
nature. Consumer confidence is also measured as an important indicator of
the propensity of consumers who have discretionary income to switch from
saving to buying.

Investment Spending
Investment—or gross private domestic spending - consists of fixed
investment and inventories.

THE PPP RELATIVE VERSION

Under the relative version, the percentage change in the exchange rate
from a given base period must equal the difference between the percentage
change in the domestic price level and the percentage change in the foreign
price level. The relative version of the PPP is also not free of problems: it is
difficult or arbitrary to define the base period, trade restrictions remain a real
and thorny issue, just as with the absolute version, different price index
weighting and the inclusion of different products in the indexes make the
comparison difficult and in the long term, countries' internal price ratios may
change, causing the exchange rate to move away from the relative PPP.
In conclusion, the spot exchange rate moves independently of relative
domestic and foreign prices. In the short run, the exchange rate is influenced
by financial and not by commodity market conditions.

THEORY OF ELASTICITIES
The theory of elasticities holds that the exchange rate is simply the
price of foreign exchange that maintains the balance of payments in
equilibrium. For instance, if the imports of country A are strong, then the
trade balance is weak. Consequently, the exchange rate rises, leading to the
growth of country A's exports, and triggers in turn a rise in its domestic
income, along with a decrease in its foreign income. Whereas a rise in the
domestic income (in country A) will trigger an increase in the domestic
consumption of both domestic and foreign goods and, therefore, more
demand for foreign currencies, a decrease in the foreign income (in country
B) will trigger a decrease in the domestic consumption of both country B's
domestic and foreign goods, and therefore less demand for its own currency.
The elasticities approach is not problem-free because in the short term
the exchange rate is more inelastic than it is in the long term and the
additional exchange rate variables arise continuously, changing the rules of
the game.